Vendors Face Failure Unless They Identify Real Market, Take Cues from Users, Seybold Says
SAN JOSE, Calif. — July 8, 1994 — In the middle of what was supposed to have been a good year for Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs), there is still confusion over exactly what a PDA is, and worse, just who will buy and use the devices, writes Andrew M. Seybold in Andrew Seybold's Outlook on Mobile Computing.
Examining the PDA-class devices now available, Seybold cites only Hewlett-Packard's HP 95 and HP 100 LX as successes, also noting that these are not true PDAs, but handheld computers with enhanced communications that antedate John Sculley's Apple Newton vision, on which the PDA class is based.
One possible reason for the PDA failure is lack of definition, he believes. Vendors must consider whether the PDA is a scaled-down notebook computer, a new type of device for new and different functions, or simply a telephone connected to an onboard computer.
Examining such PDAs as the Apple Newton MessagePad, the Tandy Zoomer and Motorola's Envoy, due this fall, Seybold predicts disappointing results.
"Why are the Newton and Zoomer failures, and why do we believe that Envoy will also fail?" he asks. "The answer is that none of these devices have been built to provide the functionality that will attract those desiring a mobile connectivity solution."
Seybold's model user is a business person, not a consumer, who: uses a computer in daily work; uses e-mail within the company; uses public e-mail; has a notebook computer; is away from the office at least 20 percent of the time; has a cellular phone; has a pager; and does not have a personal assistant or secretary to cover while they are away from the office.
"These business people want to buy and use a device that will help them bridge the gap between what is available on their desktop and what is available in the field. They will use the PDA to access information, review information, make quick notes and comments, and respond electronically," not to originate projects, he says.
What does Seybold want?
"Build us a PDA with an internal keyboard, wired fax/modem capability, and at least one slot for a wireless two-way modem. Then package the wireless modem with a second one designed to be installed on our LANs. Give us some good software so units can talk to each other, permit us to sign up for services over the air, and give us a bulk-rate 90-day trial price so we can see if this wireless revolution is something we want to join."
CONTACT:
Andrew Seybold's Outlook, San Jose, Calif.
Linda Seybold, 408/338-7701
or
Victor Wortman Co., Santa Monica, Calif.
Victor Wortman, 310/393-6281