Text of Speech Presented by Mr. Doug Dunn, OBE, President and CEO of Philips Semiconductors at Mobile 94 Convention and Trade Show
March 11, 1994–Mr. Doug Dunn, OBE, President and CEO of Philips Semiconductors presented this speech on Thursday March 10 at the Mobile 94 convention and trade show. Philips Semiconductors is part of the Philips Electronics group of companies headquartered in Eindhoven, The Netherlands.
Using existing technology, to be mobile in 1994 means being a pioneer wandering off into the wilderness with very primitive weapons facing unknown problems while treading where no man has gone before. What you carry with you permits a limited amount of telephone usage with cellular telephones, your portable computers can operate for up to six hours with a single charge, the RF or cellular fax-modem is just starting to make an appearance. Finally, because of conflicting standards and dissimilar power sources, there is very little opportunity to transport your portable devices from one country to another.
But, not unlike your bold pioneers heading West in the last century, we are standing on the technological edge of incredible possibilities that can be met with existing technology and products. We, at Philips Semiconductors, are exceedingly close to the realities of the mobile market. The presence of our components in one in three phones in the world, and our familiarity with telecommunications standards has given us a unique insight into the realities of the market, we can bring the pieces together from all over the world. We see European national digital telecommunications standards, such as GSM, that will clearly become the international standard for the rest of the world. (BUT NOT, UNFORTUNATELY, HERE IN THE UNITED STATES) We see computer technology from the United States offering devices that anyone can plug in and use at any time. We see advanced portable multimedia devices from Asia Pacific that children all over the world want and use. Millions of laptops, millions of cellular phones, and a coming together on the information highway.
Pushing and shoving What we don't see yet is that one single, all encompassing technological leap that will bring it all together under one clear banner. Communications standards are converging and within the PC itself, the adoption of the PCI BUS by Apple is a clear indication of the rise of plug and play compatibility. With recent advances in the transfer of NTSC, PAL and SECAM directly onto the motherboard, even the multimedia market is attempting to gain a place at the trough.
One candidate for carrying the mobile flag is the much touted Information Highway.
Even now we know that the information highway will have to have on ramps and off ramps. It has the transportation units in place, and all the infrastructure fairly clearly outlined. What it lacks are the drivers, and a clear understanding of what they will be driving.
The reality of being part of Mobile 94 is a promise of almost boundless opportunities for the manufacturer, the user and the designer. How did We Get Here? Let's look at how we got here.
To get to this important crossroad, the mobile market has had to go through three stages
a) Size. As products came onto the market, the battle cry from the consumer was for smaller and smaller applications. In the computer market, the luggable computer turned into the laptop, the laptop became the notebook and so forth. In telephones, the cellular automobile phone became the "bagged" phone and then the handheld.
The key to shrinking the size of the end-product consisted in more integration of existing ICs coupled to the increasingly sophisticated production method for the chips themselves.
b) Power: very quickly the limiting factor, as well as the single most wanted feature was to reduce the power consumption of the new devices. The more the manufacturers became adept at shrinking the product, the more the size and longevity of the battery became the issue. There was a short period when the notebook computer could actually get away with 45 minutes of operating time, or the handheld phone could live with only 4 hours of standby. This rapidly became unacceptable and a two tiered attack was mounted, first to increase the life of the battery (NiCAD, NiMH and others) the other to develop components that require lower power consumption.
The trend we are seeing in IC manufacturing is a very rapid shift to 3Volt power and lower and to replace existing power hungry components wherever they appear.
c) Functionality, the next frontier will be conquered on the question of the number of added functions that are being offered. These new markets are being completely blurred by a host of new products being launched to satisfy applications that did not exist three years ago. Beyond the hype and buzzwords, what can we, as manufacturers, make of the PDA, the information highway, interactive television, on-line multimedia, cellular faxes and datacom devices?
What will your customers expect from these products today, and how will you meet those expectations tomorrow? Apple's Newton signaled the start of a new generation of products. Although not perfect in any sense of the word, it demonstrated that the technology had a long way to go, but that the product itself is needed. It lacked functionality in key areas.
Bureaucrat's desert Overlaying what can be broadly described as the march towards portability through the three stages of size/power/functionality is the whole fabric of standards that are being created and must be met by the manufacturers.
And here I would like to take an editorial aside, the European telecommunications market, with its rapid acceptance of the digital GSM standard will inevitably become the technological leader in that market. In the United States, because of deregulation, there is no, single unifying body with the authority to impose, as in Europe, a single, clearly superior standard on the market.
A question we have been hearing quite often, what will the next PDA look like?
Well, to start with it will have specific wireless communication functions. In that case will it be a datamodem, and meet the new CDPD requirements. Will it be a cellular phone? in that case it will have to deal with voice, GSM, DECT, IS54 or some new standard now emerging in a major market? The new device will also have to meet basic computing requirements, so from the start are we speaking DOS, UNIX, Windows (which brand), or will it be armed with a 486, Pentium, Power PC, RISC, or, again, some new chip uniquely designed for that application? Recent advances at Philips point the way to a universal device of some kind, with broad translation powers into existing standards.
The PDA of tomorrow will have to provide a simple interface, but not necessarily a pen device. The latest type of universal peripheral standard will probably see an ACCESS.bus port on the side for the user to choose his particular input method.
Finally, how will the PDA connect into the interactive networks that are slowly emerging from all the alliances of the late eighties and early nineties. The portable television is only now starting to come onto the market, and once the consumer can take his TV with him, will Home Shopping Network be far behind?
What'll It Do? Behind all the standards, the functionality issues, the sheer market demands for newer, faster, better and CHEAPER, there also exists a need to constantly refine the technologies. From the early fabs and simple transistors, we now have advanced CMOS and BICMOS with millions of transistors. From the one-person designer of the past to the multimillion dollar product design teams of the present that employ all aspects of the new technologies we are seeing vast changes in how the new market is approached.
The mixing cauldron that leads to a new product has produced several losers of note that would return later under a new guise. Three years ago the buzzword was pen computing, pen interface pen input. Momenta was a multimillion dollar failure that proved that a single technology can not drive a market. But the technology remained, and pen-based systems are alive and well, and surviving in numerous applications such as the Newton from Apple, the Federal Express computerized input devices and with several car rental agencies.
Ubiquitous Versus All Over the Place So what can we expect to take on the road with us in the next five to ten years.
One bold prediction, there will be a PDA device in there somewhere. But beyond the simple device that tracks our day, communicates with others and does the other things we now do at our desks, can we expect a vast new mobile market to unfold in the years to come?
From the point of view of a company that has pioneered numerous electronic devices that we all take for granted, it is obvious that numerous consumer pressures are demanding mobile solutions. The answer to the above question is obviously yes.
It is clear that the demand for a single universal product is increasing almost daily. The new Simon from Bell South, the popularity of notebook and palmtop computers, and the increased sales of computer gameboy type devices means that the market is converging on portable.
Furthermore, anything now being done at a fixed location because it requires power inputs or outside connection to a data stream will soon be handled from the road.
Not because it is convenient, but because it will become essential. Second, a portable device is an untethered device, and the new technologies liberate the individual not just from his desk, but also from outside restraints on his creativity.
Finally, going mobile means that time and space are no longer a restriction on productivity. The coming mobile revolution will engage all our activities.
Some examples of the coming mobile revolution
For example, in the field of medicine, mobile emergency units will monitor a patient's vital signals, corrective measures will be taken, and emergency operations will be undertaken at the scene of the accident through satellite linkups to emergency facilities hundreds of miles away. The key will be newer emergency units designed to let a physician monitor and intervene from a distance. It will permit centralized emergency trauma centers to dispense medical assistance where no medicine is available today. The new units will have card readers to scan the medical records of the victims, and report back from headquarters on any specific conditions.
For example, the multimedia connection in the near future. I expect this application to be developed quite quickly because, as they say in every mystery magazine, that's where the money is. In the beginning the interactive games and shows that are currently being played on computers will probably become mobile, the next step will be to disseminate information, and make it accessible to all concerned, after that, the mobile technologist will have to develop data and distribute it across all the airwaves and cables that will form the information highway.
For example, education, providing information to students of all ages at any time, regardless of the income of the community to which it is beamed. I envision a day when the teacher can stand in front of a class to educate, to explain and to mold and creatively focus the attention of the student on the interplay between a large number of subjects. The super PDA will help project, expound, amplify and support the discussion, lift the class out of their environment, and put them whenever and wherever they want to be.
And it's coming sooner than we can imagine because it's being pushed by people who already know the backroads of the mobile market. People who were brought up with a walkman in their ears, a calculator in their bags, and a PC on their desks.
People who listen to music that was never played on an instrument, and who create paintings, drawings, and manuscripts without ever touching a pencil.
Who are these technological geniuses? Your children and mine.
Philips' Vision
From our vantage point as part of a multi billion dollar electronics firm in Europe, I can see a future where all the data, all the entertainment and all the facilities that we take for granted in separate venues will come together in one relatively portable device. A device that is simple to use and universally accepted, but will provide each individual with his own unique interface. A combination CDI, telephone, personal computer, GameBoy, medical monitor, order desk, banking card, printer, stereo, TV, and bottle opener that will be on everyone's belt.
Note to Editors: Philips Semiconductors is actively engaged in numerous Mobile computing, communicating and entertainment projects.
CONTACT:
Philips Semiconductors
Peter Brown, 408/991-3626