Early Adopters Will Push PDA Sales To 65,000 In 1993
NORWELL, Mass. — June 25, 1993 — The market for personal digital assistants (PDAs) is finally taking off as the first products reach retailers. Although vendors initially expected products to be widely available this summer, significant numbers of PDAs will not reach retailer shelves until early in the fourth quarter. According to market research firm BIS Strategic Decisions, unit sales of PDA products will reach 65,000 in 1993, despite the late start. For many manufacturers, the race to production is in full swing, with products being finalized at a record pace.
BIS notes that the battle for market positioning has already begun, with AT&T, Apple and Tandy/Casio (with their jointly-developed "Zoomer") all claiming the high ground of advanced personal communications, although AT&T, through its equity position in EO, will be the first to bring a "Personal Communicator" to market.
Communications has emerged as the critical initial application to distinguish PDAs from other products like electronic organizers and palmtop computers. As Bill Ablondi, vice president of BIS Strategic Decisions' Personal Computing Market Advisory Service, stated, "Nobody needs a PDA, but everyone needs to communicate, coordinate, share, schedule, and keep up-to-date…and we all have our own means of doing these now. But new tools like the PDA are coming to market and may change the way we do many of these and other information-handling tasks."
BIS used a randomly selected, projectable sample of over 1,700 telephone interviews to identify several groups of innovators (leaders in the adoption of new approaches) who will lead in the purchases of PDAs. "While many innovators were interested in expanding their computing capabilities, communications features were considered central to PDA product acquisition."
Communicating PDAs will serve a key role as the wireless network infrastructure expands to provide much-needed connectivity. "The most recent announcements by Time-Warner/US West, AT&T, Viacom, and others indicate the network convergence of voice and data technologies," said Richard Siber, director of BIS' Mobile Communications Market Advisory Service. "The communicating PDA will provide the end user with the interface to these vast information and entertainment offerings."
BIS estimates that 65,000 PDAs will be sold by the end of 1993. "We hear about all of the phone stores and Radio Shack outlets that will have product by the holiday buying season, but PDAs are not impulse purchases for last-minute shoppers," said Ablondi. "It will take a year or so to get the message out to the early adopters who typically follow the lead of innovators. Rapid expansion will not occur until widespread, low-cost, wireless data communication becomes available. BIS believes that it won't be until 1996 or 1997 that sales climb past the half-million a year mark."
"Reaching and supporting PDA customers will be the key to market success," said Raymond Boggs, BIS analyst. "As daunting a task as product design and engineering has been, crafting an effective distribution strategy will be even more important." Boggs noted that some retailers might be outrunning the market in their enthusiasm for PDAs. "The mass market for the product will not be in 1993 or 1994," said Boggs. "And now is not the time to build unrealistic expectations about the product." Ultimately, however, PDAs as a category have the potential to alter the product landscape and could represent a retail opportunity equal to personal computers.
CONTACT:
Martha Popoloski of BIS Strategic Decision, 617-982-9500