1993 Market for Smart Handheld Devices up 30%
NEW YORK — January 11, 1994 — Shipments of all types of "smart" handheld devices — which include high-end organizers, personal digital assistants (PDAs), personal communicators, and some handheld CD-ROM products (intelligent books) — grew from 600,000 units in 1992 to 779,000 units in 1993.
LINK Resources forecasts a 45.7 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years for these P3 (Personal Productivity Partners) devices, with over five million units shipping to commercial and residential users in the U.S. in 1998.
Forecasts of P3 Shipments (units in thousands):
Device 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 CAGR
———————————————————————-
Organizer 594 586 555 527 448 403 363 -9.1%
Personal Agent 0 160 385 539 728 1,019 1,324 52.6%
Personal Communicator 0 9 85 285 675 1,250 2,250 203.8%
Intelligent Electronic Book 3 19 33 74 135 225 385 82.5%
Electronic Notepad 3 5 17 33 72 135 240 115.2%
Entertainment Personal Agent 0 0 35 85 165 275 550 99.1%
Total Units 600 779 1,110 1,543 2,223 3,307 5,112 45.7%
Notes: 1. Shipments are from suppliers to distribution and may include channel fill. 2. CAGR — Compound Annual Growth Rate from 1993 to 1998. 3. Entertainment-oriented personal agents will be introduced in 1994.
LINK forecasts that annual shipments will increase in value from $454 million to $3.3 billion during this period, while the installed base grows to 9.5 million devices.
In spite of less-than-perfect products, the market for PDA devices like the Apple Newton and Tandy/Casio Zoomer was successfully launched in 1993, with shipments of 160,000 units in the last five months of the year. 1994 will see the introduction of second generation PDA products, with units from Sony and Motorola using General Magic Technology, plus smaller, lighter personal communicators such as the BellSouth/IBM Simon. These personal communicators and PDAs will sell well to mobile executives and to the small office and home office markets. Electronic notepads and PDAs will expand into the industrial and vertical markets.
Since its launch in late 1992, the market for "smart" handheld devices has passed from speculation to initial product shipments, and, in 1994, to serious user trials. By late 1993, preliminary buying patterns were beginning to be visible as a second wave of vendors, such as Sony and Motorola, prepared to enter the market. LINK's expectations for major P3 events in 1994 include the following:
o New personal communicator products (defined as having wireless voice communications) similar to the IBM Simon will be announced, as will new messaging and wireless communications services.
o Large contracts for P3s, such as the Department of Defense ProMed program, will solidify the usefulness of these devices.
o New CDPD and enhanced SMR services — based on the networks being implemented by McCaw Cellular and NexTel, respectively — will drive down user charges for wireless voice and data communications.
o Color displays will be introduced on handheld devices at a price premium not more than $100 above comparable units with monochrome displays.
o Competition among vendors allied around different operating systems will intensify. The leading P3 operating systems in 1994 will be GEOWorks' GROS, Apple's Newton Intelligence, AT&T's PenPoint from GO, and Microsoft's Windpad.
Founded in 1976, LINK Resources is the premier market research and consulting firm in the electronic information services industry. LINK assists technology vendors and service suppliers to capitalize on the opportunities emerging from the convergence of the information, telecommunications, personal computing, and electronic entertainment industries.
LINK Resources is a division of International Data Corp., the leading provider of market information, industry analysis, and strategic and tactical guidance to builders, providers, and users of information technology. A subsidiary of International Data Group, IDC is uniquely positioned to provide a global perspective with local content and expertise.
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LINK Resources
Michael French, 212/627-1500
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Michael Ault, 508/872-8200